Indian rupee to rise on Jio IPO inflows, RBI while oil risks cloud outlook

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is expected to appreciate on Wednesday, driven by dollar inflows from the Jio Platforms IPO and support from the Reserve Bank of India, although traders remain cautious about oil price risks that could reignite pressure on the currency. The rupee is anticipated to open within the range of 94.75-94.80 per dollar, having closed at 94.9250 the previous day.

India's financial markets were closed on Tuesday for a holiday. The initial public offering (IPO) of Jio Platforms begins for subscription on Wednesday, with institutional interest proving to be strong. Over 30 times the shares available have been bid for in the anchor portion. Typically, foreign investors employ sell/buy swaps to manage their dollar flows for IPO allocations, exchanging dollars for rupees in the spot market and agreeing to repurchase them at a later date, usually within a week.

Upon the allocation of shares, investors can unwind these positions and sell dollars directly to fund their investments, resulting in a supply of dollars, as per traders. The rupee's potential gains are anticipated to be bolstered by ongoing dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India, which has been intervening around the 95-per-dollar mark to strengthen the currency.

The rupee has been on a seven-day upward trend. However, it is currently struggling to surpass the 94.70 level, according to a currency trader at a bank. Whether the IPO-related inflows will be sufficient to propel the rupee past this threshold, which it has repeatedly failed to achieve, remains to be seen. Oil price risks pose a significant threat to the local currency.

Brent crude prices climbed by 1.5%, reaching $110.34, as a result of Middle East supply concerns, with traders being cautious about the risks posed by the Red Sea shipping and threats to oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia.