Konjunktur: Britische Inflation steigt auf 3,5 Prozent – höchster Wert seit fast einem Jahr
Damit gilt eine Zinserhöhung Anfang November als nahezu sicher – weitere könnten folgen. Denn Notenbanker erwarten, dass die Inflation im kommenden Jahr über vier Prozent steigt.
British inflation surged to 3.5% in September, its highest level in nearly a year, according to the Office for National Statistics. Consumer prices rose by 3.5% over the past year, up from 3.1% in the previous month, exceeding economists' expectations of 3.4%. The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in over three years at their meeting on November 5th.
The central bank is likely to increase rates in increments of a quarter of a point, as energy prices have recently rebounded. Markets anticipate three more increases over the next year. Official data points to fuel prices as the primary driver, with diesel hitting a record high when Brent oil surpassed $100 per barrel. October will also see energy price caps, which currently offset some costs for consumers.
Inflation pressures mount domestically, with service sector inflation reaching 3.7%. Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey sees little indication of major second-round effects, but warns that the longer the energy shock and war in Iran persist, the more difficult it will be to avoid a rate hike. The Bank expects inflation to climb above 4% in early 2027.
Higher inflation poses a challenge for Chancellor John Healey, who must present the budget the following week. Healey had promised consumers and businesses more room to maneuver, but rising energy costs make this difficult.
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