How Long Could You Wait for the S&P 500 to Recover From a 10% Drop?
One comeback took around a month. Another took nearly six years. Which one should a holder plan for?
The S&P 500 index has experienced 24 declines of 10% or more from record highs since 1950, with each decline eventually resulting in a new record high. The median wait time from the bottom of the decline to the following record high was around five months. However, the waiting period varied significantly, ranging from a month to nearly six years.
Thirteen of the declines stayed below a 20% drop, with a median wait of about three months, and none of those declines took more than six and a half months to recover. The latest decline began on Feb. 19, 2025, following tariff worries, dropping to 4,982.77 on April 8, almost 19% below the February record. Despite this drop, the index rebounded to a new record high of 6,173.07 on June 27, 2025, less than three months later.
When measured from the old record high instead of the decline's bottom, the median wait time for a new record was approximately 15 months. Some declines, such as those in 1982 and 2002-2009, took about four to six years to recover. Since 1950, a decline of this magnitude has occurred roughly once every three years on average, but there is no set schedule.
For investors, the prolonged recovery periods during bear markets, particularly those lasting more than a year, may be more impactful than the median wait time.
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