Brasilien: Lula oder Bolsonaro? Kurz vor der Stichwahl ist das Rennen plötzlich offen

As the Brazilian presidential election draws closer on Sunday, the race between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is suddenly wide open. According to recent polls, Bolsonaro holds 47% of the vote, while Lula trails with 45%. Lula is seeking his fourth term in office, promising to tackle poverty and inequality, just as he has for the past four decades.

Bolsonaro, son of imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro, won the first round by a mere 1.9% back in February. However, Lula has managed to close the gap, especially among the younger demographic, many of whom stayed home in the first round. "The election is now wide open," says Luciana Chong, Director of Datafolha, an institute that conducted the surveys.

Chong notes that the decision will likely come down to seven percent of voters who have yet to decide, with young women from the lower middle class being the most undecided. The first round of voting was unengaged, with no rallies or debates, according to Chong. "Nobody was excited, neither the candidates nor the voters." Now, the electorate is more invested.

Bolsonaro attracts crowds, but does not excite them like his father. At a pivotal moment in Salvador, there was no fatigue at Saturday night's largest rally, where supporters promised to continue their father's policies. In contrast, Lula's final rally saw fewer attendees from the religious and military communities who supported his father, Jair Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro's supporters were younger and more female, and they chanted "Lula, thief, your place is in prison!" When Bolsonaro began his speech, he had young influencers dancing and taking selfies, appearing exhausted after two hours on stage. He even struggled to lead a chant for his father, "Volta Bolsonaro!" However, Jair Bolsonaro's supporters roared, seeing him as a living legend.

By contrast, Lula's performance was shaky at times due to his hoarse voice and lisping, while Bolsonaro spoke eloquently and almost presidentially. In the first presidential debate, Lula stumbled at the start and was hard to understand due to his hoarseness and lisping. Bolsonaro, however, came across eloquently and statesman-like.

Lula attacked Bolsonaro's alleged corruption, but the incumbent responded swiftly, successfully countering Bolsonaro's questions. Lula accused Flávio Bolsonaro of being connected to banker Daniel Vorcaro and demanded that he reveal his family's accounts. Bolsonaro claimed that 73% of jailed individuals had voted for Lula, to which Lula responded, "I want 100% of that, even your father."

"Lula should have knocked Bolsonaro out to swing the election," says political analyst Maria Cristina Fernandes of Valor Econômico, "but he didn't."