Will Xi, Trump, Putin meet at Apec? First, they must agree on an agenda

The possibility of a trilateral meeting between US President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the upcoming APEC summit in Shenzhen remains uncertain. For the meeting to take place, observers believe that the countries must first agree on an agenda, with one expert describing this as a "critical lever".

Russia stands to gain the most if the trilateral meeting occurs, as it would symbolize the country's international resurgence and great-power status. While Trump has expressed openness to sitting down with Xi and Putin, he has emphasized that the meeting should be based on denuclearisation, an issue Beijing has resisted negotiating.

Chinese officials have privately welcomed the idea of three-way talks, but have not actively pushed for them. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning declined to comment on the possibility of a trilateral meeting when asked. Experts have stated that the agenda would set the tone for any summit and determine its success, as conflicting private agendas or fundamentally misaligned topics could prevent the meeting from happening.

The agenda must focus on areas of consensus while avoiding "red lines" for a dialogue to become viable. While the nuclear issue offers the most obvious potential starting point, other topics such as Ukraine, trade, Taiwan, and the broader international order are likely to enter any conversation. Without a clearly agreed-upon agenda, the possibility of the trilateral talks in Shenzhen is deemed remote.

Some suggest that the three leaders might opt for an informal encounter instead, such as a "stroll together or a cup of tea". If a meeting were to take place, China would likely be open to discussing global, constructive, and mutually beneficial issues, but would resist efforts to align with a particular bloc or propose "unfair" demands, such as forcing China into US-Russia nuclear arms control negotiations.

However, China's nuclear arsenal is significantly smaller than that of the US and Russia, and Beijing has long refused to join trilateral arms control talks with Washington and Moscow. The stability of US-Russia relations and the trade tensions between Washington and Beijing would also be crucial factors in determining whether the meeting goes ahead.