Sudan: Nobody Hands Over a Gun for Nothing

Sudan's army chief, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, reaffirmed on October 6th that negotiations with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, are impossible and that the war will continue until victory. Earlier, Donald Trump's envoy, Massad Boulos, met with Burhan in Egypt. The US is advocating for a 90-day humanitarian truce, with Burhan's UN General Assembly visa conditionally linked to it.

In 1996, General Alexander Lebed stated that all wars, even those lasting a hundred years, end through negotiations and peace, but cautioned that piling up corpses does not justify negotiations. The Khasavyurt truce in 1997 saw the troops leave, the other side retaining their weapons, and the Chechen status issue postponed until 2001.

However, the second Chechen war erupted in 1999, driven by those perceiving themselves as the victors and led by Shamil Basayev and Khattab, not the peace's signatory, Maskhadov. Burhan's precondition for a truce is RSF withdrawal to designated areas in Darfur, essentially a victory plan. The Quad, comprising the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, proposes a two-party truce, but Burhan offers no peace plan.

The Quad insists that the transition cannot be controlled by any warring party. Washington has declared neither the army nor the RSF, nor their leaders, represent legitimate governance and stated they rule through force alone. This principle is understandable, but implementing it in practice is challenging. The weapons held by armed groups are their guarantee that a deal will be upheld; disarming leaves them defenseless.

Civil wars rarely end without external guarantees, often requiring force. In Sudan, the guns are not held by just the army or RSF; other factions like the Joint Force of former Darfuri rebels, Minni Minawi and Gibril Ibrahim movements, and militias are also involved. A proposal by Ezzat Khairi suggests a unified table, where each side declares their forces and weapons, accepts observers, and respects ceasefire lines, with a common timetable for withdrawal and cantonment.

This approach acknowledges that all sides are involved in the conflict and aims to break the cycle of spoilers.