South Korea central bank to hold rates on October 22, hike in November: Reuters poll

The Bank of Korea will maintain its key interest rate at 3.00% during its October 22 meeting, according to a Reuters poll of economists, before raising borrowing costs again in November. Despite two consecutive increases, inflation remains above the central bank's 2% target, while economic growth continues to be robust. Consumer inflation slowed to 2.9% in September from 3.1% in August, still exceeding the 2% goal.

Factors such as semiconductor-led growth, a recovery in domestic demand, and high energy costs are contributing to sustained inflationary pressures. However, recent moderation in headline inflation and comments from Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun Song suggest the central bank may opt to pause the rate hikes for now. All surveyed economists anticipate the Bank of Korea will increase the base rate to 3.25% at its November meeting, in line with their own projections, with further hikes expected to 3.50% in 2027.

While the Bank of Korea assesses the impact of the recent hikes, risks to financial stability remain, particularly housing, household debt, and market volatility. The KOSPI index hit a six-month low, marking the 10th circuit breaker this year, highlighting heightened market uncertainty.