South Korea central bank to hold rates on October 22, hike in November: Reuters poll

The Bank of Korea (BOK) will maintain its key policy rate steady at 3.00% during its October 22 meeting, according to a Reuters poll of economists, with a hike anticipated in November. Despite consumer inflation easing to 2.9% in September, it remains above the BOK's 2% target, largely due to strong semiconductor-led growth, a recovery in domestic demand and elevated energy costs.

Governor Shin Hyun Song's call for a review of the recent back-to-back rate hikes provides policymakers with time to assess their effects before deciding on further increases. All surveyed economists expect the BOK to keep its seven-day repurchase rate at 3.00% at the October meeting. However, they forecast the base rate to rise to 3.25% by November, followed by a potential hike to 3.50% in the first quarter of 2027.

The poll notes that inflation is expected to average 2.7% this year, before easing to 2.2% in 2027. Strong growth, driven by semiconductors, domestic demand and energy costs, is expected to continue, potentially keeping inflationary pressures in check. The BOK will also monitor financial stability risks, particularly developments in housing, household debt and financial markets.