Opinion polls suggest stalemate one week before Israeli election

In just a week, Israeli citizens will cast their votes in what many are referring to as the most pivotal election in the nation's history. Despite fluctuations in Israel's usual news cycle, the recent polls have remained relatively stable for several months. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's faction nor his main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot's, are close to securing a majority.

Voters are understandably anxious about the current political deadlock, especially given the country's deep divisions and heightened regional tensions.

According to the average of three surveys conducted by Israel's leading pollsters, Gadi Eisenkot leads with 52 seats, just one ahead of Netanyahu. This leaves 17 seats unaccounted for, which could prove crucial in determining the government's formation. These seats could be the deciding factor in whether a coalition is formed or if another election is called, a scenario that has played out in Israel's recent political landscape.

However, the picture is not entirely clear-cut. Some less mainstream surveys, published by right-wing news outlets, show Netanyahu's bloc in a stronger position, with Channel 14 predicting a slim one-seat majority in a poll released on Sunday. Despite this, the support for Netanyahu's coalition has been steadily declining over the past few weeks.

Netanyahu's political prowess is a subject of much debate. His knack for forming unexpected alliances and discrediting opponents is well-known. Israel's military remains on high alert, with concerns about a possible conflict with Iran arising even before the polls open. This additional uncertainty could potentially tip the scales in Netanyahu's favor.

A decisive move for the mainstream opposition, Eisenkot's bloc, would be to unite with Israel's Arab parties. Many opposition parties, including Eisenkot's, have ruled out forming a government with parties that traditionally represent the country's Palestinian population, which accounts for approximately 20% of the population. With a potential surge in turnout among Palestinian citizens, this group could gain enough influence to sway the election's outcome.

If Eisenkot manages to include them in his coalition, or opts for an arrangement where they provide support from outside, the far-right could react negatively. Should this happen, Netanyahu might be labeled a traitor, and some of his current coalition partners might reconsider their allegiance.