Loop Capital cuts AAPL target to $330 over complicated 2026-2027 iPhone cycle

Loop Capital has lowered its target price for Apple stock to $330, citing complications in the company's 2026-2027 iPhone release cycle. The downgrade comes after the analyst team, led by Ananda Baruah, revised its projections due to Apple's staggered product launch schedule. Initially, Loop attributed the production issues to shortages in memory and processors. However, further investigation into supply chain data revealed a different scenario.

The analyst firm now expects Apple to ship 79 million iPhones in the December quarter, a significant decrease from Wall Street's estimated 85 million. This shift in expectations is primarily due to the impact of Apple's revised launch schedule, which saw the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max released in September, followed by the foldable iPhone Duo on October 23. The standard iPhone 18 was absent from the September launch and is not expected until early 2027.

Loop's revised forecast indicates a 10% reduction in iPhone shipments for the September and December quarters, though the methodology behind this estimate remains unclear. The analyst team also lowered its average selling price forecast for the iPhone in the 2026 remainder to $1,123, down from $1,239. For 2027, they expect a lower average selling price of $1,096, despite forecasting a higher shipment volume of 260 million units.

This shift in iPhone sales and pricing has led Loop to project a decline in revenue from $315 billion in 2027 to $285 billion, not accounting for the higher shipment volume. The firm's 2027 earnings-per-share forecast has also been reduced from $10.11 to $9.76. Loop attributes the revenue decline to rising memory costs, which could negatively impact Apple's profitability.

The analyst firm's assessment is supported by other industry experts, who have noted the impact of Apple's revised release schedule on global smartphone shipments. JP Morgan and Counterpoint have also pointed to the missing standard iPhone 18 as a key factor in the observed decline in shipments. While Apple's premium models are outperforming expectations, the overall third-quarter shipment decline is attributed to a combination of factors, including memory shortages, higher prices, and the absence of the standard iPhone 18 in the fall 2026 launch.