Copper Needs $332 Billion in New Mines to Avoid Deficit, BloombergNEF Says
While nine out of ten key energy transition metals are back on track to deliver sufficient supply by 2050, a total of $332 billion of investment is needed in new copper mines to avoid a looming copper deficit that could slow electrification, BloombergNEF said in its Transition Metals Outlook 2026 on Tuesday. In recent years, supply of key energy transition metals has improved considerably, with…
BloombergNEF predicts that $332 billion of investment in new copper mines is needed to avoid a looming copper deficit by 2050. This shortage could slow down the electrification process, as global demand for copper is expected to increase by 61% between 2026 and 2050. Currently, nine out of ten key energy transition metals, including lithium, graphite, cobalt, aluminum, nickel, manganese, steel, platinum, and palladium, are on track to meet the demand.
However, copper remains the exception, with a supply shortfall beginning in 2028 and potentially reaching 20 million metric tons by 2050, which is 44% of projected global demand. The shortfall may lead to higher prices, substitution of alternative materials, and a delay in the deployment of electric vehicles, batteries, and electricity grids.
Even with the necessary investment, building new mines takes an average of 17 years, so the deficit could persist for decades. China still dominates metals refining globally, with more than half of the refining capacity for eight of the 10 materials studied concentrated in a single country, raising concerns about supply security.
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