AI reveals how a warming climate will intensify NZ’s most extreme downpours
By running hundreds of climate simulations much faster than conventional models, AI can deliver better regional projections of what communities need to prepare for.
A recent study has revealed that as the climate warms, the most extreme rainfall events in New Zealand are expected to become more intense, with larger increases compared to more frequent heavy rainfall. Conventional climate models have limitations in predicting regional changes due to their coarse grids, but researchers have employed generative artificial intelligence (genAI) to simulate hundreds of possible futures and explore how extreme rainfall might evolve.
The findings suggest that in a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the amount of rain falling during a once-in-a-century event would increase by approximately 9% per degree of warming, on average across New Zealand and the simulated possible futures. For more common heavy rainfall events, the increase would be around 5.6% per degree.
The heightened intensity of heavy rainfall events could lead to increased flooding and damage risks. The study also highlights that warming widens the gap between milder and more severe possible futures, meaning that under the most severe scenarios, extreme rainfall would increase substantially more than the average projections.
By leveraging AI to analyze regional climate simulations covering historical and future conditions, researchers have been able to generate more than 15,000 simulated years in a fraction of the time it would take conventional models. This approach allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the potential rainfall extremes and their associated risks, helping communities prepare for the worst-case scenarios.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation AU's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
