Trans-Pacific facing new booking risks as reliability sinks

Asian shippers moving cargo to North America are facing reduced vessel capacity and booking difficulties as reliability in trans-Pacific shipping deteriorates, according to WiseTech Global's October Ocean Freight Risk Outlook. While capacity on Asia-Europe and Europe-North America routes remains plentiful, trans-Pacific capacity is expected to tighten due to lower planned carrier capacity.

This is expected to worsen service performance on the trans-Pacific route, despite published schedules suggesting relatively short transit times. On the Asia-North America route, on-time performance fell to 26.9% in September from 33.9% in August, with delays of eight days or more remaining the largest arrival outcome category. The report warns that weak actual performance continues to create uncertainty around arrival dates despite scheduled transit times being below the recent 28-day baseline.

WiseTech advises forwarders and cargo owners to book early and factor in additional delivery time, considering the reliability of individual carriers. Asia-Europe reliability fell below 10% in September, while Asia-Europe services saw the sharpest decline in monthly on-time performance, dropping to 9.9% from 22.9% in August. Longer planned transit times for this route range from 37.8 to 39.9 days, below the recent 40.7-day baseline.

In contrast, Europe-North America presents a less constrained capacity outlook, with on-time performance weakening but still above the historical average.