Still sweating in October? UAE temperatures remain high as El Nino intensifies

Autumn seems to linger longer than expected in the UAE this year, with temperatures remaining uncharacteristically high. The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has issued a warning about the El Niño weather phenomenon, which is expected to be the strongest on record. Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean have risen between 2.3°C and 3°C above the long-term average, making this year's El Niño a major global weather disruptor.

Instead of the typical October cooling, the El Niño phenomenon has created a blanket of high pressure over the Arabian Peninsula, leading to temperatures between 37°C and 43°C, which are 4°C higher than usual. The UAE's average daily temperature in October is currently 29.7°C, as per the NCM's latest monthly weather summary.

October and November are anticipated to experience the peak of the El Niño cycle, with above-average rainfall. However, this may also bring the risk of severe flooding. Dr Diana Francis, an expert at Khalifa University, stated that El Niño generally shifts the Gulf and parts of the Arabian Peninsula towards wetter conditions, enhanced moisture transport, and a greater likelihood of heavy rain episodes.

The risk of flooding was evident in late March when parts of the UAE experienced severe flooding, almost two years after the region saw its most extreme rainfall on record, during a fifth-strongest El Niño on record. Since then, authorities have been investing in improving drainage systems to better cope with severe rains.

El Niño, also known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, occurs when warmer sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean cause broader climate changes. This year's El Niño is forecast to be exceptionally strong, with the World Meteorological Organization warning that it could significantly alter rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, potentially triggering extreme weather.

The phenomenon has three mechanisms that influence weather in the Gulf region: warmer sea-surface temperatures near Indonesia and the West Pacific, an alternating pattern of high and low-pressure systems affecting moisture transport, and a shifted subtropical jet stream allowing mid-latitude storms to enter the Middle East. While El Niño increases the likelihood of wetter conditions, it does not guarantee them, as rainfall in the region varies greatly from year to year.