Still sweating in October? UAE temperatures remain high as El Nino intensifies

Hazy October skies have greeted UAE residents this year, with temperatures well above the norm. The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has issued a critical update on the El Nino weather phenomenon, forecasting the strongest event on record. Severe sea surface temperatures in the Pacific have soared, with some regions registering temperatures 2.3C to 3.0C above average, marking this event as a major global weather disruptor.

Instead of the usual October cool-down, a blanket of high pressure is trapping unusually high temperatures across the Arabian Peninsula. Maximum temperatures have reached between 37°C and 43°C, with some areas experiencing up to 4°C higher than usual. October's average daily temperature sits at a warm 29.7°C, according to the NCM's latest monthly weather summary.

The UAE's average October temperature is expected to peak during the height of the El Nino cycle, bringing both higher rainfall and flooding risks. A 96 percent probability exists that these volatile conditions will persist through March 2027, with potential secondary environmental impacts extending into April. Dr Diana Francis, an associate professor at Khalifa University, warns that the region should be prepared for increased rainfall, stating that El Nino generally tilts the Gulf and parts of the Arabian Peninsula towards wetter conditions.

Dr Andries-Jan de Vries of the University of Lausanne highlights the risk of heavy rain, especially in mountainous areas, which can lead to rapid accumulation and flooding. The UAE has already seen severe flooding in March 2026, almost two years after the country experienced its most extreme rainfall on record during a fifth-strongest El Nino.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation, or El Nino, is a natural climate phenomenon causing warmer sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, with far-reaching effects on global climate patterns. The World Meteorological Organisation warns that this year's El Nino is expected to be exceptionally strong, potentially shifting rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide and fueling extreme weather.

A recent study has highlighted three mechanisms through which El Nino influences weather in the Gulf region, including warmer sea-surface temperatures around Indonesia and the West Pacific, an eastward shift of high and low-pressure systems from the Pacific, and a southward shift of the subtropical jet stream over North Africa and the Middle East.

While El Nino increases the likelihood of wetter conditions, it does not guarantee it, as rainfall in the region varies greatly from year to year.