Open Thread 456

This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you wish, ask random questions, and engage in whatever discussion you desire. ACX features an unofficial subreddit, Discord server, and bulletin board. Local in-person meetups are held in various locations worldwide. Most content is free, though some is restricted to subscribers; subscription information can be found here. Further details on recent meetup changes can be found in the post.

The Boston ACX meetup group has completed their Greater Boston general election voting guide. Additional guides may be released in the forthcoming week. The Bay Area ACX meetup is scheduled for this coming Saturday, 10/24, at 1 PM at Mox in San Francisco. Keep an eye out for a subsequent post regarding the event.

Stephen Grugett, a grantee and co-founder of Manifold Markets, has introduced his latest endeavor: MNX, a real-money prediction market focused on AI. Users can sell futures representing AI company stocks, place bets on AI company revenues, and predict various targets, such as Epoch Capabilities Index milestones. Despite discussions of Anthropic’s API forecasted decline from $2T to $1.5T, both Polymarket and MNX continue to price it close to $2T.

Goodheart Labs, a friend of the blog, is developing Common Notes, an innovative concept termed “Twitter Community Notes, but for everything.” The platform relies on a combination of AI-generated notes, user-generated content, voting mechanisms, and a browser extension that integrates the system across multiple websites, including this blog. Users are encouraged to install the browser extension, available at the provided link.