Kenya braces for El Niño rains as Met forecasts showers in 44 counties

Kenya is preparing for a wetter-than-usual period from October to December, as the Kenya Meteorological Department forecasts rainfall across 44 counties. This forecast comes as part of the broader expectation of enhanced rainfall during the October–November–December short-rains season, driven by the strengthening El Niño event.

The latest seven-day forecast predicts rainfall in various regions, including Meru, Embu, Baringo, and other counties, with isolated storms possible in certain areas. This uneven distribution of rainfall means some regions may experience significantly more rain than others.

Temperature variations are also expected, with daytime temperatures reaching above 35 degrees Celsius in parts of Garissa, Wajir, and other areas, while some regions will see nighttime lows dropping below 10 degrees Celsius.

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development's Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has issued a regional outlook, predicting wetter-than-normal conditions across the Greater Horn of Africa due to El Niño and the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole.

While El Niño can lead to increased rainfall, the strength of the Indian Ocean Dipole will play a crucial role in determining the intensity of the rains. Authorities are warning of potential flooding, landslides, damage to infrastructure, and the risk of waterborne diseases. Farmers are encouraged to use the forecasts to manage their crops and livestock, while the government urges preparedness measures for the anticipated weather conditions.