European gas pauses near 2022 highs; Lagarde warns on energy price pass-through

European natural gas prices paused near their highest levels since 2022, cooling after a multi-month surge. The Dutch benchmark contract remained flat at 87.88 euros per MWh, while the British equivalent held steady around 217.20 pence per therm. European gas prices have surged 210% year-to-date in the Netherlands and 196% in the UK.

ECB President Christine Lagarde cautioned on Saturday that ongoing financial tightening is making it harder for households and firms to handle higher fuel and power costs. She warned that the market-driven rate hikes will likely exceed the ECB's projections for absorbing fuel and power bills due to conflicts in the Middle East. The ECB is expected to raise its policy rate to 2.75% in December, adding to the strain.

Gas-fired industrial activity is expected to be negatively impacted by higher capital costs throughout the year. However, price discovery remains limited due to supply risks, as seaborne LNG deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz face challenges from maritime attacks and rerouting around Africa. European gas storage levels are also low compared to seasonal norms, leaving the continent exposed to potential cold snaps as winter approaches.