Democrats remain clear favourites to gain control of Congress at midterms
US President Donald Trump’s net approval is below what any past president since Harry Truman had at this point in their term, with Joe Biden the closest at -11.7.
As the November 3 midterm elections approach, Democrats are the clear favorites to gain control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives, according to Nate Silver's forecast model. Currently, Democrats lead Republicans by 9.6 points in the generic ballot, with Donald Trump's net approval rating at -22.3. If the Iran war disruption persists with higher petrol prices and inflation, Republicans may suffer significant losses in both chambers of Congress.
Silver's model gives Democrats a 75% chance of winning the Senate and a 94% chance of winning the House. Democrats have an 88% chance of winning the Senate and a 94% chance of winning the House if polls are accurate. However, if polls overstate Democrats by 3-4 points, their chances drop to 38% in the Senate and 99% in the House.
Economic factors, such as high petrol prices contributing to inflation, may also play a role in the election outcome.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation AU's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
