Dax: Die Stimmung am deutschen Aktienmarkt steigt – doch ein Problem bleibt

Germany's stock market sentiment has improved, with the DAX index surging 2.1% last week, in contrast to a 1.9% drop in the US S&P 500 index. However, investors must avoid panic, as upcoming weeks may see more turbulence, according to Handelsblatt's DAX Sentiment survey. This survey polls over 10,000 retail investors every Friday morning to Saturday evening about their current market assessment.

Stephan Heibel, CEO of analysis firm AnimusX, analyzed the responses and adjusted his evaluation method. He changed the threshold for extreme values from under -4 or over +4 to a more complex system that varies across a different scale. The investor sentiment (sentiment) improved from -36.6 points to -15 points, significantly moving away from the extreme range starting at -46 points. Self-satisfaction also increased slightly, from 1.41 to 1.48 points.

However, only 80% of historical values fall in the range of 1.42 to 1.91 points, indicating that self-satisfaction is still close to the lower extreme values. Market participants missed the rally despite the significant price decline, according to Heibel. He believes, "Clearly, not all investors have participated in the DAX recovery; many have invested in technology stocks that faced pressure last week."

The outlook for the second week in a row has declined, falling from +18.9 points to 13.6 points. Heibel attributes this to a common pattern where rising prices lead to lower future expectations, as part of the anticipated price gains are realized. Self-satisfaction has increased to 56.9 points, but a value above 50 indicates more buyers than sellers.

With a combination of rising sentiment, falling future expectations, and higher self-satisfaction, Heibel sees a positive development, describing it as "a sign of recovery." In the past, down trends often ended when sentiment was poor and future expectations were low. In this case, it suggests most investors who held positions without long-term conviction have already sold, reducing selling pressure and allowing stocks to rise sustainably.

However, Heibel identifies the problem not on the selling side but on the buying side, as a separate AnimusX survey shows investors have fewer free liquid resources. He asks, "Who will still buy?" He views the current outlook dichotomously: while the optimism hindrance is gone, there is a position that leaves little fresh money available.

Therefore, sentiment expert Heibel does not recommend investors invest their free money entirely. Instead, he expects the market to become uncomfortable again due to increased interest rates, high energy prices, and doubts about the AI boom. He concludes, "The election in the US will again cause turbulence, during which investors can use their summer-built cash reserves to buy favorite stocks."

The development from Monday appears to confirm the AnimusX experts' view, as the DAX fell more than 1% after trading.