China's GDP is set to grow 4.5% YoY in Q3, up from Q2's three-year-low growth rate of 4.3%, as AI-driven exports helped offset weak domestic spending (Osmond Chia/BBC)

In the three months leading up to September, China's economic growth surged, marking a sharp contrast to the three-year low observed in the preceding quarter. This growth was largely fueled by the AI boom, which in turn bolstered exports. According to official Chinese data, the nation's economy expanded by 4.5% in the third quarter, up from 4.3% during the previous period. However, this expansion was still below the 5% growth target set by Beijing for the year.

The latest growth figures fall at the lower end of the government's annual growth goal, which analysts suggest provides policymakers the flexibility to tackle China's economic hurdles. While the exports have managed to offset the weak domestic spending, global trade tensions and uncertainty surrounding AI investments cast a shadow over China's economic prospects.

Despite the challenges, China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that the economy continued to develop steadily despite the pressures. The report highlighted the emergence of new growth drivers and an improving economic structure. The surge in exports has led to a record-high trade surplus, projected to surpass the $1.2tn mark reached last year. Nonetheless, the property investment sector witnessed a significant decline of more than 20% over the first nine months of the year compared to the same period last year.

Oxford Economics researcher Sheana Yue pointed out that manufacturing and high-tech exports have contributed to China's growth, even as investment and domestic spending lagged. The property slump, stemming from overbuilding and excessive borrowing by private developers, continues to plague China's economy. Yue also noted that Chinese consumers have become increasingly pessimistic and less inclined to spend due to trade uncertainties and geopolitical issues.

In an attempt to stimulate the economy, Beijing introduced a series of support measures in September, such as lower interest rates for certain businesses and subsidies for property buyers. However, Beijing faces criticism from Western nations like the US and the European Union for the competitive edge it enjoys with its large-scale exports.

Additionally, there are concerns over the billions of dollars invested in AI infrastructure and whether the companies investing in these ventures can deliver on their promises of substantial profits.