California billionaire tax could backfire, Stanford study says
A new analysis from Stanford economists cautions that enacting a billionaire tax could have unintended consequences.
California voters will soon decide whether to implement a tax on billionaire wealth, a proposal aimed at funding the state's healthcare system. However, Stanford economists have warned that the tax could backfire, potentially reducing the state's overall tax revenue. Seven billionaires have already left California, resulting in the loss of about $540 billion, or 30%, of the state's total billionaire wealth, according to Stanford economists Benjamin Jaros and Joshua Rauh in a recent study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
This exodus includes figures such as venture capitalist Peter Thiel and Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin. The economists predict that even if only a few more billionaires move out, the wealth tax may only generate around $30 billion instead of the previously estimated $100 billion. If implemented, the tax would impose a one-time 5% state tax on billionaire wealth.
Despite the sizable $30 billion, future income tax losses due to billionaire departures could exceed $1 billion to $3.5 billion annually, ultimately surpassing the tax revenue by approximately $39 billion if this loss persists permanently.
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