‘Bondade eleitoral’ ou compra de voto? A conta não para de crescer
A proliferação das medidas caridosamente chamadas de ‘bondades eleitorais’ — ou “compra de votos com dinheiro público”, para outros — não tem paralelos na história do País. É difícil fazer a conta com precisão, porque as “bondades” misturam aumentos simples e diretos de despesas, promessas futuras ainda a serem aprovadas e políticas parafiscais, como linhas de crédito subsidiado.
The rise of "bondade eleitoral" or vote-buying measures has no historical parallels in Brazil. It is difficult to precisely calculate the cost, as these "bondages" combine simple and direct increases in expenses, future promises yet to be approved, and policy measures like subsidized credit lines. Estimates of the total impact, which were around R$ 200 billion in June, have now exceeded R$ 300 billion.
President Lula appears willing to do anything, even risk breaking the country, to secure re-election. The government has announced a new measure almost every day to show it is connected with the people's pains, with little time left before the election. Recently, the government announced the early payment of Bolsa Família, adjusted by 15.04%, costing R$ 5.8 billion this year alone.
The money will fall due by Wednesday, just four days before the second round. Without rearranging the dates, many beneficiaries would receive payments only from the following week, with the election result already decided. A detailed report by consulting firm Pinotti & Schwartsman listed the estimated costs of all measures announced in recent months, totaling R$ 356.3 billion.
In just September and the months since, R$ 88.5 billion has been spent, with another R$ 12.9 billion earmarked for federal tax debt relief for MEIs (micro, small, and medium enterprises) and a promise to implement the 'Pix Mei' – a R$ 5,000 check for each microentrepreneur, potentially costing another R$ 5 billion. The Desenvolva 3 measure alone will cost R$ 15 billion.
There are also subsidies to keep fuel prices stable at an estimated R$ 15.8 billion and other election promises without any impact study or evaluation of possible outcomes. The consultancy suggests that Flávio Bolsonaro's advantage may be even greater than recent poll projections if the same first-round bias repeats. The government has accelerated the announcement of populist "bounties," some already approved by Congress and others still restricted to promises.
"Spending as if there were no tomorrow is Lula's motto," the consultancy states. "Instead of improving public service quality, Lula settles for transferring money and benefits, disregarding the need for fiscal consolidation to remain in power." The consultancy warns that the cost extends beyond direct spending, affecting interest rates and, consequently, vulnerable families and businesses.
They argue that this strategy leaves a heavy fiscal legacy without guaranteeing desired results at the polls. The report notes other upcoming measures in Lula's pipeline, including the PEC for free weekend public transport and a loss of tax revenue due to the weekend bet ban, estimated at R$ 5.2 billion next year. Increasing the ceiling for MEIs will add another loss of over R$ 8 billion annually.
The winner on Sunday, whether Lula or Flávio, will inherit an extensive populist election bill – an equation that will be even harder to balance due to the slowing economy in recent months. Financial expert Gabriel Leal de Barros, chief economist at ARX Investimentos, says the true cost of this fiscal explosion will only be known after the election.
"We are living through a moment similar to the Dilma government crisis, when nobody knew the exact size of the hole in the public accounts," he told Brazil Journal. Assuming Flávio wins – the base case, considering first-turn projections and recent polls – his transition team will need to be highly competent to clean up the mess, estimate the cost of each measure, and classify what is fiscal, parafiscal, and a revenue loss.
According to Barros, the country needs fiscal consolidation around 4% of GDP, but there is huge uncertainty about the starting point. He estimates the next year's primary deficit will be around 1% if no fundamental shift occurs. For a potential new government, "everything must be made explicit – even to gain credibility," he concluded.
"We may see some additional interest rate shock and more foreign capital flow once a fiscal shock is addressed, followed by structural reforms."
Written by urgent.news from Brazil Journal's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
