What is holding up the US-India trade deal?

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to visit India for the second time this year to bolster ties between the two nations despite ongoing friction over a trade deal. The visit, which will focus on investment and energy, will bypass New Delhi and instead take place in Mumbai and Jamnagar, home to Mukesh Ambani's refining complex.

Experts say the inability to seal the long-awaited trade deal is the "elephant in the room." Challenges include the legal uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's tariff plans, post-court challenges, India's reluctance to expose farmers to foreign competition, and Washington's warmer ties with India's rival Pakistan. The trade pact, which was agreed upon in February, has faced hurdles due to the unclear value of US offers after the tariffs were struck down, India's concerns over new US measures, and the sensitive issue of agriculture.

Despite optimism among negotiators, both governments now speak of a "plateau" in talks, with little room for further concessions. India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stated that talks have hit a "plateau," while US Trade Representative Jamie Pressly said an announcement was not "imminent." Agriculture remains a sensitive issue for India, while Washington wants greater Indian purchases of US energy supplies.

Indian Trade Minister Piyush Goyal said the first tranche of the deal is in its final stages, but it won't be operational until India secures an edge over its competitors.