Ukraine Peace Prospects – Q&A
A top international expert offers his assessment of the current situation.
Q: Do you think the Trump-Putin "deal" will result in lower diesel and global energy prices? A: My assessment is that Russia lacks surplus diesel capacity to export. Ukrainian drone attacks have caused domestic shortages, forcing Russia to impose an export ban. I expect these drone attacks to persist, as they are achieving their objectives.
The US administration likely understands the implications of this, which may be why Trump's messaging around the alleged Russian diesel deal aims to blame Ukraine for the persistently high energy prices. In reality, the primary driver of elevated global energy prices is the Iran war, not Ukraine's conflict. Q: Is there a secret energy agreement between Russia and Ukraine?
A: No, there is no hidden agreement. Both sides are unaware of any behind-the-scenes deal. The suggestion that Trump is inventing something as he goes along appears plausible. Trump seems to believe that merely uttering something somehow makes it transpire. However, Putin and Zelensky have their own priorities and objectives. Q: What does Putin hope to gain from an energy deal?
A: Putin has no inclination to accept an energy deal at the moment. His focus remains on the French elections in May 2027. He will continue to escalate the conflict until then and throughout the winter, aiming to cripple Ukraine's economy and increase the costs for Europe in supporting Ukraine. This strategy could force Europe to reconsider its support for Ukraine by mid-2027.
Putin will likely offer empty words to Trump while expecting more concessions. Q: Will Putin hold out for more concessions from Trump? A: Undoubtedly, Putin will persist in seeking additional concessions from Trump. The more Trump appears desperate and incoherent, the more effective Putin will be in weakening Western support for the alliance.
Exploiting this, Putin may increase Russian cyberattacks, drone strikes, attacks on European infrastructure, assassination attempts against Western industrial leaders, and election meddling. Q: Will Europe abandon Ukraine if Trump demands it as part of a peace deal? A: Europe is beginning to acknowledge that Russia poses an existential threat.
They recognize that the US no longer serves as a protective shield for Europe. As Ukraine's survival is crucial for Europe's long-term security, when necessary, Europe will side with Ukraine over the US. This has been observed in the original article on the author's @tashecon blog.
Written by urgent.news from Kyiv Post's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
