UAE weather: 96% probability of El Niño persisting until March 2027, bringing hotter, wetter conditions
Dubai: The UAE could experience above-average temperatures and rainfall in the coming months as the El Niño weather phenomenon strengthens, with a 96 per cent probability of El Niño conditions prevailing from November 2026 through March 2027, according to the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM). In its latest seasonal climate outlook, the NCM said the developing El Niño pattern could influence…
The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) in the UAE has issued a forecast indicating a 96% probability of the El Niño weather phenomenon persisting from November 2026 through March 2027. This development is expected to bring hotter and wetter conditions to the country, with the phenomenon likely to begin affecting weather patterns in January.
Current climate indicators show significant El Niño activity in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region reaching 2.3°C above the long-term average. While the NCM's outlook suggests that the UAE could experience above-average temperatures and rainfall, particularly in the latter part of the forecast period, the intensity and geographical distribution of rainfall will depend on regional weather systems and atmospheric conditions.
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