Southeast Asia’s ethnic Chinese traders feel the China squeeze

In Kazakhstan's modern capital Astana, car dealer Auyez Kabdygali is contemplating a significant transformation in his business. He is shifting from importing European vehicles to Chinese electric cars due to their attractive pricing and superior quality. Kabdygali's grandfather has placed an order for a BYD Han, the flagship model of Chinese carmaker BYD, and plans to collect it from a border terminal in China, intending to drive it hundreds of kilometers back home.

This shift in preference is not solely due to EV technology, but also reflects the broader economic advantages that China brings to Kazakhstan, viewing it as a cooperative, non-interfering partner. Astana, with its population of over 1.3 million, exhibits a modern skyline juxtaposed against Soviet-era architecture, adorned with Chinese-built infrastructure.

The cityscape mirrors the developments in northern China, as numerous Chinese goods populate stores across Astana. While Beijing and Washington vie for influence in the Central Asian region, Astana finds itself in a challenging position, attempting to maintain balanced relations with both superpowers. Despite the growing economic ties, there remains skepticism about China's intentions, particularly regarding competition with the United States.

Kabdygali views China positively, appreciating its role as a friendly market and a source of economic support, seeing it as a significant market for goods. His positive impressions stem from personal experiences, including visits to China during his English studies in Malaysia and interactions with Chinese friends. His family's travels to China have further solidified his belief in the nation's potential.

Kabdygali remains cautious about over-reliance on China, advocating for a balanced trade approach that includes exporting food and manufactured goods to China. He dismisses concerns about intensifying US-China competition in the region, attributing any potential disadvantage to the US's manipulative tendencies. In Central Asia, attitudes towards China have seen a shift since Beijing launched the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, with a decline in favorability early on followed by a resurgence of positive sentiments since 2021.

The study reveals that tangible economic benefits and China's non-interference approach are key factors driving this positive perception. However, concerns over debt and land acquisition persist, influencing the overall view. Younger generations, more connected to social media and Chinese exchanges, tend to have a more objective view of China, while older generations, having experienced Sino-Soviet tensions, are more skeptical.