PRN Melaka: Penentu Umno perlu PAS PRU16, kata penganalisis

Analyst Hisommudin Bakar suggests that Umno's decision to remain silent on potential cooperation with PAS is less than two weeks away from announcing candidates for the PRN Melaka election. Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Professor Mazlan Ali argues that Umno's performance in the recent PRN elections in Melaka could determine whether they need PAS's support in the 2016 general election.

If Umno can win independently, they would be in a stronger position to determine how much PAS would need in PRU16, he told FMT. Umno is cautious about forming a coalition with PAS in the upcoming PRN Melaka election on November 14th, believing they can retain 21 seats they won in 2021, as well as not needing to compromise much. Earlier, Barisan Nasional Chairman Zahid Hamidi stated that while Umno desires to retain 21 seats, the party is open to discussing potential exchanges with coalition partners, possibly involving up to seven DUN seats.

However, Mazlan's primary concern is whether this exchange would involve PAS's strongholds and question how many seats PAS would be willing to cede to BN. Hisommudin Bakar, leading the Ilham Centre think tank, connects Umno's reticence with concerns about whether cooperation would benefit BN or strengthen PAS, which contests the Malay vote.

Umno must assess whether cooperation would revive the party or boost PAS, he said, adding that a victory for BN recently in PRN Johor and Negeri Sembilan owes much to PAS voters who rejected the Pakatan Harapan (PH) alliance. In Johor, BN won 48 of 56 contested seats, while in Negeri Sembilan, the coalition took 18 of 25 contested parliamentary seats.

The question is whether BN can maintain these without PAS support, he said, adding that a solo Umno faces the risk of a three-way race that cost the party seats in the 2018 and 2022 general elections. But Hisommudin noted that Umno's reticence can keep the party with open options, weighing the pros and cons of potential coalition deals and seat-sharing negotiations.