President Trump's Push to Reschedule Marijuana Hit a Snag. Is Green Thumb Still a Buy?

President Trump's efforts to reschedule marijuana have encountered a setback, potentially delaying the process that has been underway for years. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) report on how federal agencies evaluate controlled substances is now being scrutinized for its inclusion in the administrative record. While the DEA has not objected to adding the report, the additional requests could push back the final decision on moving marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III.

For Green Thumb Industries (GTBIF), this timing is frustrating as rescheduling could help the company avoid a major federal tax burden and retain more of its earnings. However, Green Thumb's case for investment isn't solely reliant on federal policy. The company faces a unique disadvantage under Section 280E of the federal tax code, which prevents cannabis businesses from deducting ordinary operating expenses.

Despite this, Green Thumb still generated $29 million in operating cash flow in Q2 2026, with revenue reaching $306.7 million and normalized EBITDA of $84.3 million. The company's market capitalization is around $1.4 billion, and it has been using financial flexibility to repurchase shares, reducing its outstanding share count. While federal policy remains the primary near-term catalyst, Green Thumb's investment appeal lies in its established cannabis business generating cash and the potential for significant tax relief if federal reform advances.

Despite risks like pricing pressure, regulatory uncertainty, and uneven growth, Green Thumb appears attractive to those who are patient and can handle some volatility.