Malaysia's September trade and inflation data, regional central banks' policies in focus

KUALA LUMPUR: In the week of October 19 to 23, Malaysia's trade and inflation figures, along with regional central bank decisions, will be closely watched. UOB Global Economics & Market Research highlighted these key releases in their outlook. Malaysia's exports are projected to grow 36% year-on-year, slightly below the 45.5% growth in August.

Conversely, imports are anticipated to rise 35% YoY, down from the previous 41.1% growth rate, resulting in a wider trade surplus of RM29 billion. Malaysia's headline inflation is expected to increase to 2% from 1.9% in August. Bank Indonesia's monetary policy decision on Wednesday is also a focal point due to the rupiah's pressure and energy price uncertainties.

UOB economist Enrico Tanuwidjaja predicts a 25 basis point (bps) rate hike to 6% by Bank Indonesia, despite analysts' consensus view of maintaining the rate at 5.75%. UOB's forecast suggests a pause in rate hikes, with a potential total of 2 additional 25 bps hikes in the fourth quarter of 2026, bringing the policy rate to 6.25% by year-end.

In the Philippines, nine analysts expect a 25bps rate hike to 5.25% on Thursday, driven by persistent inflation. China's third-quarter GDP and September economic data will also be closely monitored for signs of momentum in the world's second-largest economy, with UOB forecasting 4.3% YoY growth, in line with the second quarter. The US will see a focus on corporate earnings, with 491 companies reporting third-quarter results, including 74 S&P 500 constituents.