Leaders weigh 'huge benefit', risks of AI for global economy

The artificial intelligence (AI) boom has been a major driver of global economic growth, yet it also presents potential economic risks, warned experts and policymakers at the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok. AI-driven spending on data centers and microchips has helped offset the economic shock caused by rising energy prices due to the Middle East conflict, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

IMF Chief Economist Silvana Tenreyro stated that global trade increased by 8.3 percent between 2023 and 2025, which would have been closer to 4.6 percent without AI-related products. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem noted that AI is evident in GDP, stock markets, and bond markets, indicating its pervasiveness in the global economy.

However, some top officials cautioned against over-reliance on AI investment, acknowledging the potential for a "bumpy" path ahead due to uncertainties in technology understanding and market structure. IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva emphasized that any slowdown in AI could have global financial stability implications, as weaker or less durable AI investments could reduce global GDP by 0.4 percent by 2028.

Moody's Analytics warned that a prolonged Middle East conflict could "puncture" the AI boom by increasing energy prices and financial conditions, adding pressure to AI business models' long-term viability. Regulation uncertainty has also clouded AI's future, with leaders like US President Donald Trump calling for limited government intervention, while some industry experts demand legislation to mitigate risks.