History Says Nvidia Stock Does This in November. Here's the 1 Thing That Could Break the Pattern.

In the past five years, Nvidia's stock price has surged by an astounding 899%, resulting in a $10,000 investment growing to $100,000. This meteoric rise has been fueled by the company's leading role in artificial intelligence (AI) technology. Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs) are widely recognized as the premier chips for training and running AI models, making their products highly sought after by customers.

The company's data center revenue grew by 117% year-over-year to $89 billion in the most recent fiscal quarter, ending July 26, 2027. As AI continues to reshape industries, Nvidia's position in this rapidly evolving market has attracted significant investor interest.

Historically, Nvidia's stock has performed favorably in November. In November 2020, shares climbed by 7%, while gains of over 25% were observed in November 2021, 2022, and 2023. However, the year 2025 brought a notable drop of 13% in November. Given this pattern, some investors might anticipate a positive return for Nvidia's stock in the upcoming November.

However, there is a potential factor that could disrupt this historical trend. The key lies in Nvidia's most important customer segment, comprised of the five major hyperscalers, including Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Oracle. These hyperscalers accounted for $49 billion in data center segment sales, representing a substantial portion of the $89 billion total revenue in the latest fiscal quarter.

The hyperscalers' investments in AI infrastructure are primarily driven by the growth of their cloud services. Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure have all experienced accelerated revenue growth in recent quarters. Moreover, the cumulative backlog of cloud spending from these hyperscalers has reached over $2 trillion, a strong indicator of demand for Nvidia's products and services.

Slower growth in hyperscaler cloud revenues could lead to a reduction in capital expenditures (capex), which would negatively impact Nvidia's data center business. Additionally, a decline in market sentiment could further weigh on Nvidia's stock performance.

While the probability of Nvidia posting a positive return in November may be higher than a loss, investors should remain cautious. A slowdown in hyperscaler growth could cast doubt on the ongoing AI boom and potentially pressure Nvidia shares. Therefore, it is crucial for investors to closely monitor the third-quarter financial results of the hyperscalers and their subsequent commentary.

While the current pattern suggests a favorable outlook for Nvidia's stock in November, potential headwinds could disrupt this expected performance.