Flávio Bolsonaro: Brazil's next president?

Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, is on track to become his country's next president. Despite his father's disqualification from running in the 2026 election and his own four-year jail term for plotting a coup, Flávio secured over 47% of the vote in the first round, narrowly edging out incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. This comes after Brazil's electoral court validated his victory, which came with the warning that an absolute majority was not achieved.

The Liberal Party senator, currently 45 years old, is set to face Lula in a run-off election on October 25th. The election results indicate that Jair Bolsonaro's exclusion from electoral politics has not dismantled his movement, as his son has managed to assemble various factions around his ideological core and altered how they compete for power. Business groups anticipate deregulation, while Christian conservatives anticipate protection from cultural change. Others simply wish for the left-wing Lula government to end.

Flávio's rise in politics began at age 21 when he joined the Rio de Janeiro legislature. He completed four terms before winning a Senate seat in 2018, focusing on security and prisons. His familiarity with the Bolsonaro party organization, contrasted with his father's confrontational nature and erratic relations with Congress, has proved advantageous. By contrast, his son seems more comfortable with committees, negotiations, and the mechanisms that convert political power into policy.

Several potential contenders for succession initially emerged, including Flávio's younger son Eduardo, his wife Michelle, and São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. However, Eduardo moved to the US, entangling himself in legal proceedings, which narrowed the field. Flávio's entry into politics was facilitated by his father's name, and his candidacy has been supported by figures like US President Donald Trump.