Flávio Bolsonaro: Brazil's new president?

Flávio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old Liberal Party senator, is poised to become Brazil's next president by securing over 56 million votes in the first round of the 2026 election, which represents nearly half of the total votes cast. This victory comes after his father, Jair Bolsonaro, lost the presidency four years ago and is now barred from running again due to his past involvement in a coup plot. The other candidate, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, also known as 'Lula', received just over 45% of the votes.

Following the election, a second round will take place on October 25th, with Lula and Flávio facing off to determine who will occupy the Planalto Palace. Despite Lula's significant lead in the first round, polls indicate that Flávio remains in contention, suggesting that his exclusion from political activities has not diminished his influence.

Financial markets reacted positively to Flávio's success, with Brazil's stock index, Ibovespa, experiencing a 7.7% increase to a record high of 206,911 points. This surge was driven by gains in various sectors, including banks, retailers, construction companies, and Petrobras, the state-controlled oil company.

Flávio's political strategy has been to unite diverse groups under the Bolsonarismo ideology and improve the party's approach to electoral competition. While several contenders emerged initially, such as his younger son Eduardo and his wife Michelle, Flávio managed to secure support by aligning himself with the Bolsonaro name and demonstrating competence in political maneuvering.

However, there are concerns surrounding Flávio's past. He has faced allegations of involvement in a political corruption scheme, and his employment of family members connected to a high-profile murder case has raised questions about his integrity. Despite these issues, Flávio's rise in popularity and his ability to mobilize support from various political factions suggest that he may indeed become Brazil's next president.