CBS News poll: Talarico-Paxton Senate race is a Texas toss-up

The Texas Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton is currently a tight contest, essentially tied. The outcome hinges on voter turnout in the closing weeks, which could significantly impact the race. Talarico's support benefits from higher perceptions of his personal character among voters, while Paxton enjoys strong backing from Republicans who want to oppose Talarico or support President Trump.

The cost of living is the top issue for Texas voters, and most feel negatively affected by higher prices, which Talarico is seen as addressing better than Paxton. Talarico garners 5% of the Republican vote and 9% of non-voters, but his views on cultural policies threaten Republicans, while support for Paxton is primarily aimed at backing Trump.

With fewer liberal voters in Texas, Talarico is viewed as "very liberal" by nearly half. To win, Talarico needs strong turnout from independents and some vote shift among Republicans, and he must engage younger voters who favor him. Latino voters, who have largely supported Trump, now back Talarico, and they are more likely to perceive the economic hardships as a significant issue.

Incumbent Governor Greg Abbott also leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the gubernatorial race, receiving support from 7% of Talarico voters. The CBS News/YouGov survey, conducted between October 8-16, 2026, with 1,492 registered Texas voters, has a margin of error of ±3.4 points for registered voters and ±3.5 points for likely voters.