‘AI 거품론’에 국채값 오르고 달러 내려…미국에 쏠린 투자, 회수 움직임

Last week, the hype surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) led to fluctuations in the prices of key government bonds and the value of the US dollar. Typically, during times of anxiety, funds flock to safe assets like dollars and government bonds, causing their prices to rise. However, in this case, the US dollar moved against expectations.

This outcome could be attributed to concerns that the AI industry, which serves as the birthplace of AI, would suffer if the bubble burst. On the 18th, the US Treasury Department reported that the 10-year US government bond rate, which had surged past its psychological resistance level of 5% and reached 5.3%, dropped to 5.09% on the previous 16th (local time).

This was the lowest level since September 22nd when it slipped below 5.1%. The decline in interest rates meant that government bond prices increased. This result can be attributed to investors selling AI-related stocks and buying government bonds instead. Concerns over the heavy debt and profitability of AI companies led investors to seek refuge in government bonds.

The rates for other key government bonds also fell. For instance, Japan's 10-year government bond rate, which had surpassed 3.1% at the start of the month, hovered between 2.9% for two consecutive days starting from the 15th. The 10-year Korean government bond rate dropped from 4.407% at the end of the previous month to 4.182% on the 16th, while the 3-year bond rate fell from 4.011% to 3.854%.

Notably, the movement of the dollar, a major safe asset, was striking. The dollar index, which represents the value of the dollar against six currencies, stood at 101.78 on the 16th. This represented a 0.8% decline compared to the 102.57 recorded on the 12th, before the AI stock market decline fully materialized. Analysts attribute this reversal to the "US tilt" phenomenon where most investment funds flowed into the US during the AI surge.

If the bubble worries increase, resulting in a wave of investment withdrawals, this could trigger a dollar sell-off. According to Japanese Nourin Securities analysis, foreign investors had accumulated assets in the US, accounting for 80% of the net foreign assets of all sovereign wealth funds globally as of the end of the previous year.

In other words, much of the world's idle money was pouring into the US. Prior to 2010, this figure had only reached the 20% range. Recent low hedge ratios among foreign investors further increase concerns about a potential dollar sell-off, as they would need to sell their assets in cash when converting to their home currency. Financial Times columnist Katie Martin interpreted the recent dollar weakness as support for the hypothesis that the AI bubble would force funds out of the US market and dollar assets.