Why hasn't the UK had any named storms yet?
So far this autumn wet and windy weather patterns have been steered away from the UK. When could we see that change?
As November approaches, the United Kingdom has yet to witness its inaugural named storm of the season. This delay is attributed to the influence of deep Atlantic lows, which have been redirected by prevailing high-pressure systems. Unlike previous years, where discussions have centered around drought concerns, the present narrative is one of potential storm activity.
The Met Office anticipates a rising likelihood of wetter and windier conditions in late autumn and early winter, as El Niño gains strength in the Pacific. As the nights grow longer and temperatures at the poles decline, the disparity between polar and tropical temperatures intensifies, potentially triggering a more robust jet stream - a high-altitude, swift wind band that plays a pivotal role in storm development and delivery.
In typical autumn scenarios, the jet stream frequently traverses the UK, channeling stormy weather towards the region. However, this season, the jet stream has predominantly positioned itself to the north or northwest of the UK, sparing the majority of the country from significant weather disruptions. Consequently, the southern half of England has been predominantly warmer and drier, with reservoir levels plummeting, prompting the Environment Agency to declare a severe drought in some areas.
Forecasts indicate a forthcoming shift in weather patterns, with a forthcoming week's change in the jet stream's position and strength potentially ushering in broader wetter and windier conditions across the UK. Additionally, longer-term projections suggest an elevated probability of rainfall and storminess in the coming months.
Storms are typically christened when they pose a threat of damaging winds, flooding, or disruptive snowfall. The practice of naming storms aids in public awareness and preparedness, enabling individuals to mitigate adverse impacts by planning ahead. In Europe, storm naming is coordinated by meteorological agencies from the UK, Ireland, and the Netherlands, with the UK, Ireland, and the Netherlands constituting the western storm-naming group since 2015.
While storms can manifest throughout the year, they are comparatively infrequent during spring and early summer. May alone has gone without named storms in the past decade of UK storm naming practices. The probability of encountering a storm escalates from late summer through autumn, peaking during the winter months; hence, the storm-naming season commences in September annually.
The arrival of the inaugural storm remains uncommon at this juncture, occurring in roughly half of the years since 2015 after November 1st.
Written by urgent.news from BBC Science's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
