What Trump’s Waiver of New Russia Sanctions Means for Ukraine

U.S. President Donald Trump issued an executive order on October 17, 2026, waiving many sanctions from the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act. This waiver comes a week after Trump announced a diesel deal with Russia, highlighting the strain in relations between the U.S. and Ukraine. The law, set to take effect on October 18, aimed to target Russian officials, financial institutions, and entities, along with tariffs of up to 100% on goods imported from major buyers of Russian crude oil or natural gas. These measures sought to limit the financial resources supporting Russia's war against Ukraine.

Although the waiver maintains existing sanctions, it blocks additional pressure intended by the new measures. Trump has urged Ukraine to reduce the campaign against Russia's energy sector, yet Ukrainian strikes on Russian fuel infrastructure continue. Trump claimed an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine on October 11, but Russian strikes on energy infrastructure were reported shortly after, and Zelensky claimed ignorance of the agreement. Trump subsequently called for Ukraine to replace President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Withdrawing sanctions shortly after those statements and improving Russia's financial position suggests an uneven display of U.S. support for Ukraine. The October 9 diesel deal with Russia, along with the sanctions waiver, demonstrates recent actions by Trump to reduce fuel prices for Americans ahead of the midterm elections on November 3. However, experts question whether the deal would significantly impact U.S. fuel prices.

The waiver could potentially prevent further disruption to the global energy market by allowing Russian oil to continue flowing to importers like China and India. While this may not directly benefit American consumers, it could provide Russia with substantial extra revenue from its crude oil exports, which are much larger than the diesel deal's value.

The waiver could deepen the rift between the U.S. and Ukraine, potentially signaling a withdrawal of U.S. support for Kyiv. Russian economist Konstantin Sonin suggests the move could boost morale for Russian President Vladimir Putin and undermine U.S. influence in Europe.