Trump’s Russia sanctions waiver: Relief for India’s oil imports, but US still wields the stick

President Donald Trump has waived key provisions of a new law authorizing tariffs of up to 100% on Russian energy imports, providing relief for India's oil imports. The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 was enacted to increase pressure on Russia following the Ukraine war by penalizing countries that purchase large amounts of Russian energy.

India, being one of the top two destinations for Russian crude, was concerned about the new law given its dependence on Russian oil for over 88% of its crude needs. Indian officials had expressed their concerns to Washington on multiple occasions. However, Trump has signed an executive order waiving the most significant Russia-related sanctions and tariffs under the law, citing US national interests.

The waiver will remain in place until the administration determines further action is necessary. This decision comes just before key provisions were set to take effect, potentially causing a significant increase in energy prices across the US, which could impact the Republican Party's prospects ahead of the midterm elections. While the waiver removes the immediate threat of additional tariffs, it does not guarantee Washington will not pressure India in the future regarding its Russia-Ukraine issue.

For India, the waiver grants greater flexibility in assessing Russian crude based on price and availability rather than the potential tariff threat, allowing for more informed long-term oil procurement planning.