Trump’s Russia sanctions pause: How it eases tariff threat on India, lifts trade deal hopes

On Friday, President Donald Trump effectively halted the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, which had granted him the authority to impose 100% tariffs on major purchasers of Russian oil, including China and India. This decision comes as crude oil prices have surged past $110 a barrel and US midterm elections approach in less than a month.

The White House stated that a certification had been submitted to Congress, confirming that waiving the sanctions was in the best interests of the United States. This move follows Trump's efforts to reduce oil prices, including agreements with Russia to supply more than three hundred thousand tons of diesel to US and global markets, along with additional shipments in November and immediately thereafter.

Ajay Srivastava, founder of Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), highlighted that the waiver introduces uncertainty to US trade policy, as the administration threatens penalties and then withdraws them when enforcement becomes inconvenient. Senior Research Fellow at the Takshashila Institution, Arpita Mukherjee, noted that while India's oil purchases from Russia are causing a tariff threat from the US, the European Union presents a more significant concern.

The per-gallon price for diesel fuel has risen significantly in recent months, impacting US consumers and fuel costs. The threat of US tariffs has eased, potentially facilitating a trade deal between India and the US, as both countries show a broad alignment on other tariffs.