Predictions of Gaza’s death toll were wrong - why is no one being held accountable? - opinion
Gaza’s own mortality figures raise questions about years of predictions of mass death, famine, and disease that failed to materialize.
In late September 2025, Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry released its annual mortality report for 2025, claiming that 24,650 people died in Gaza. Of those deaths, they attributed 17,286 to "war operations," without distinguishing between combatants and civilians, and 1,584 to accidents. Independent analyst Eirik Schrøder-Bråtane noted that the remaining 5,780 nonviolent deaths roughly matched Gaza's pre-war annual nonviolent death toll, suggesting no surge in deaths from hunger, disease, or other indirect causes.
Furthermore, the ministry reported 50,227 births, indicating no famine or epidemics in Gaza. In fact, Gaza's infant mortality and under-five mortality rates were comparable to or lower than pre-war levels. Despite UN warnings of mass mortality and famine, the numbers reported by the ministry contradicted these dire predictions. The pattern of inflated death tolls and exaggerated claims of catastrophe has been seen in previous conflicts, but in Gaza, the number of actual deaths far surpassed the alarm.
Written by urgent.news from Jerusalem Post's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
