How big is Russia's threat against Germany?

Russian threats against Germany continue to escalate, according to multiple sources. Germany's domestic intelligence agency, the BfV, claims that Russia's covert attacks and destabilization efforts are not temporary but part of a long-term hybrid attack strategy. President Sinan Selen stated that even if the war in Ukraine ends, Russia's threat would persist, aiming to redraw Europe's map and redefine its role.

German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt described the threat as daily, focusing on political and social subjugation rather than military defeat. Security experts, while acknowledging Russia's interest in political and social influence, also suspect Russia's preparation for a major conventional war, potentially by 2029. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte dismisses the immediate threat to NATO territory, but military experts and intelligence agencies believe Russia could have the personnel and equipment for a conventional war against NATO by then.

The German defense industry is expanding rapidly, with plans to increase its armed forces to 1.5 million soldiers. Stefan Meister, an expert on Eastern Europe at the German Council on Foreign Relations, suggests Russia's current objectives are testing NATO and displaying capabilities, not initiating direct military conflict. Germany has been a primary target of Russian influence and hybrid warfare, believed to hold key sway in European decision-making.

Despite the threat, some politicians from far-right and populist left-wing parties argue that ending aid to Ukraine could improve security and free up funds for domestic programs. However, defense experts and experts warn that Germany is not well-prepared militarily or in the civilian sector, and the population is not mentally prepared for potential threats.