Donald Trump's Approval Rating Hits All-Time Low 17 Days Before Midterms

President Donald Trump's approval rating plummeted to 19% in a recent Napolitan News Service survey, marking its lowest point in the series. This decline in strong approval is significant because Republicans are urging their supporters to treat the president as a stand-in candidate ahead of the November 3 midterms. The president has repeatedly encouraged his supporters to act as though he were on the ballot, a strategy he has emphasized recently as polls have favored Democrats in the upcoming elections.

Forecasters predict Democrats have an 84% chance of winning the House and a 59% chance of gaining control of the Senate, according to VoteHub's October 15 forecast. Polling and prediction markets also favor a unified Democratic victory, with Polymarket pricing Democratic control at 63%. Despite these unfavorable odds, GOP candidates must try to mobilize Trump's base while dealing with evidence of widespread opposition to his presidency.

The administration argues that Trump has built a strong coalition through the MAGA movement and remains the best messenger for the Republican Party. However, the gap between those who strongly approve and strongly disapprove of Trump's performance is the largest in the published series, with a 27-point difference. This intense opposition may make persuasion more challenging and force Republican campaigns to focus heavily on turnout.

The 27-point difference between strong approval and strong disapproval is the largest in the series, surpassing previous negative 25-point readings. While strong approval has remained between 19 and 25 percent, strong disapproval has fluctuated from 40 to 47 percent. Adding respondents who approved "somewhat" results in a less severe outcome compared to the intensity figures alone.

The headline finding is not that Trump has lost every supporter, but that the firmly supportive share has reached the bottom of this particular poll while opposition remains much larger. The survey, conducted by Napolitan News Service for Gold Circle members, applied quotas and lightly weighted results by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet use, and political party.

Despite evidence of Trump's unpopularity, the administration denies he has become an electoral liability. Some Republican strategists believe that the president's personal popularity may not be enough to overcome concerns over the Iran war, fuel prices, food prices, and the president's overall approval ratings before Election Day.

Recent polls suggest that even hypothetical improvements, such as lower gasoline prices or an end to the Iran conflict, would not significantly sway undecided voters.