Bolsonaro and Lula head into the final stretch of Brazil’s campaign in a statistical tie

Bolsonaro and Lula are currently tied in the final stages of Brazil's election campaign for the October 25 runoff, as per two recent polls. According to a Datafolha survey, Bolsonaro holds 51% of the vote, while Lula has 49%, though this figure has shifted from 52% to 48% in the past week, with a margin of error of two points. A Quaest poll, published on Wednesday, shows Bolsonaro at 46% and Lula at 44%, again within the margin of error.

Approximately 9% of voters plan to cast blank ballots, and only 1% are still undecided. The rejection rates are nearly identical, with 54% stating they would never vote for Bolsonaro and 53% for Lula. When asked which prospect they fear more, Lula's potential re-election or the return of the Bolsonaro family to power, respondents were split evenly, with 43% each.

Lula leads in the northeast and among Bolsa Família beneficiaries, while Bolsonaro is favored in the south and among evangelicals. Both polls were conducted prior to the Senate approving a measure to shorten the workweek from 44 to 40 hours, a key part of Lula's campaign platform that Bolsonaro also supported. During a TV Globo interview, Lula expressed support for lowering the age of criminal responsibility for serious offenses, a proposal previously championed by Bolsonaro, who wished to reduce it from 18 to 16.

Lula clarified, "My opinion, as a Brazilian citizen, is that for any heinous crime, I am in favor of lowering the age of majority." Bolsonaro acknowledged his high rejection rate, attributing it to his failure to communicate effectively the government he helped form: "If I failed to make people understand the government I formed, I cannot blame anyone, the fault is mine."

Bolsonaro, who received 47.03% of the first-round vote compared to Lula's 45.16%, has garnered the support of most right-wing and center-right parties. He has pledged to preserve existing social programs and establish a Ministry of Prosperity. The candidates will meet for their first debate on Sunday, airing on Band network.