Bill Emmott: Time for allies to seek leverage ahead of a post-Trump America

The upcoming U.S. midterm congressional elections on November 3, 2022, signal the end of President Donald Trump's administration and the approach of a potentially transformative period for America's relationships with its allies. Historians may view the next two years as a mere blink of an eye, during which these countries must decide whether to treat their former ally as a friend or distance themselves due to Trump's hostility. Numerous factors, both domestic and international, could influence this decision-making process.

Allies, including Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada, France, and others, must begin planning for this pivotal moment. Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada has advocated for diversifying Canada's trading, technological, and defense relationships away from the United States, fostering closer collaboration with what he calls "middle powers."

Similarly, French President Emmanuel Macron speaks of developing strategic autonomy. However, these ambitious plans should be taken seriously but not viewed as literal, as they may not be achieved within the short two-year timeframe.

For Canada and Europe, the reality is that two years may be insufficient to fulfill their aspirations for Canada or Europe. Instead, these strategies serve as short-term maneuvers to enhance their leverage in the future. The primary objective for Canada is to maintain prime ministerial popularity and secure their position in 2029, while European leaders aim to restore a more collaborative relationship with the United States, reflecting the term "the West is dead; long live the West."

Approaching this transitional period, allies should enhance their position and ensure that the United States does not take them for granted. The European Union, for instance, has proposed a Compact for Open and Resilient Economies (CORE) involving likeminded democracies, such as Japan, Canada, and Australia. Under this proposal, member countries would pledge to consult each other before making major decisions that could impact other signatories, fostering a spirit of collaboration rather than exploitation.