Vietnam faces crucial test in quest for high-income status
Having reached upper-middle-income status in 2026, Vietnam now faces the greater challenge of sustaining growth through innovation and stronger domestic capabilities to avoid the middle-income trap and achieve its high-income ambitions by 2045. Minister stresses AI's breakthrough role in overcoming middle-income trap High, quality growth key to breaking out middle-income trap
Vietnam achieved upper-middle-income status in 2026, marking a significant milestone in its development journey. However, the country now faces the challenge of sustaining growth and achieving high-income status by 2045. To do so, Vietnam must move beyond traditional growth drivers and innovate its development model. Failure to do so could result in falling into the middle-income trap, despite maintaining a high rate of economic growth.
The World Bank has classified Vietnam as an upper-middle-income country, a status achieved after four decades of economic reform known as Doi Moi. To reach the high-income tier, Vietnam needs to develop a modern industrial base, increase GDP per capita, and boost productivity. The country must focus on technology, domestic enterprise growth, and economic resilience.
While Vietnam has seen a surge in export volume, the domestic sector's contribution to exports is still relatively low. Additionally, there is a skills gap, with many young people lacking digital literacy and problem-solving skills. To overcome these challenges, Vietnam needs to invest in research and development, foster innovation, and enhance the capabilities of domestic enterprises.
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