Sports analytics got smarter, but the underdogs kept winning
Sports analytics changed dramatically over the past decade. Teams hired larger data departments, player tracking became routine, injury information moved faster and sportsbooks gained access to increasingly detailed feeds covering almost every part of a game.
Over the course of the same decade, the Kansas City Chiefs demonstrated their ability to win against the odds in multiple sports. An analysis of betting data from 2016 to 2026 revealed that the Chiefs claimed 20 wins out of 30 games as underdogs across NFL, NBA, MLB, NCAA basketball and NCAA football, a 66.67% success rate. The Baltimore Ravens followed closely at 61.9% and the Pittsburgh Steelers at 60%.
This does not imply that bookmakers had previously doubted the Kansas City team's abilities. In fact, the Chiefs were underdogs only 30 times in the sample, with many of those games involving strong opponents or circumstances that shifted expectations away from them. However, the timing of this success is noteworthy. The period in which sports analytics improved significantly was also marked by familiar teams consistently outperforming pregame expectations.
The NFL team typically plays fewer games compared to teams in other major American sports. Even after league expansion, 17 games per season provide a limited annual sample compared to 82 games in the NBA and 162 in MLB. Additionally, significant changes can occur between games, such as quarterback availability, injuries, weather conditions, travel, rest, and opponent strengths.
Scoring events also differ across sports, with basketball having more scoring opportunities than football. An interception, missed field goal, or fourth-down conversion can have a disproportionate impact on the result without necessarily indicating which team would perform better over a larger sample.
The Sporting Illustrated rankings revealed that the Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers topped the overall table of successful underdogs in sports. The NFL team's dominance in this ranking can be attributed to various factors, including injuries, quarterback availability, weather, home-field advantage, and individual matchups. Pittsburgh's success as an underdog, with a 60% win percentage and 45 outright victories, contrasts with Kansas City's 66.67% rate.
While both teams had varying levels of success as underdogs, the circumstances surrounding their results differ significantly. Historical data alone cannot fully explain these variations, as the team's circumstances evolve over time. Successful underdogs may eventually transition out of the "underdog" category as market expectations adjust accordingly.
Written by urgent.news from 3News's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
