Ruto’s Bondo absence, ODM divisions and Sifuna wave: What it means for 2027

The absence of President William Ruto from the first anniversary of Raila Odinga's death in Bondo has sparked a new political discussion about the late Prime Minister's legacy and the future of the ODM party. The October 15, 2026, ceremony at Migwena Cultural Grounds was intended to bring together key figures who had worked with Raila, regardless of their current stance.

Instead, the event was marred by political disagreements, differing interpretations of Raila's legacy, and questions about the stability of the arrangement between ODM and the Ruto administration. The President continued with a development tour of the North Rift during the same period. Several senior ODM officials, including party chair Gladys Wanga, acting secretary general Katherine Omanyo, deputy leader Abdulswamad Nassir, and National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed, also boycotted the gathering.

ODM leader Oburu Oginga was absent due to medical reasons. These absences prompt a larger question: can Ruto maintain his ties to Raila's traditional base without the man who brokered the partnership and commanded loyalty across factions? Ruto's engagement with Raila's camp played a crucial role in their 2024 cooperation, leading to the formation of a broad-based government.

ODM obtained a platform to influence government policy and push its priorities while benefiting from Ruto's administration. However, Raila's passing on October 15, 2025, left the partnership without a central figure to explain it to his supporters. The anniversary provided ODM with an opportunity to evaluate the relationship beyond official statements.

While Ruto's allies highlight his previous engagements with Raila's family, such as the unveiling of the leader's mausoleum, the anniversary allowed residents to assess the partnership's impact on the region, especially as political alliances are being questioned. The 2027 election will provide a clearer indication of the relationship, but the Bondo events reveal why political cooperation between leaders should not be automatically linked to the transfer of supporters' votes.

The absence of several ODM figures also highlighted the challenges for a party that relied heavily on Raila's ability to manage diverse interests. The disagreements extend beyond individual attendance at the memorial, focusing on who determines ODM's political direction, the management of its relationship with Ruto, and whether the party should maintain its opposition identity or continue pursuing influence through government cooperation.

The event was further complicated by tensions over the program's content and the participation of opposition figures who have disagreed with the party leadership. This debate underscores the difficulty of separating Raila's personal legacy from the political interests of those who collaborated with him. For ODM, supporters may share a commitment to Raila's memory but hold varying opinions on the party's current alliances.

The party's leadership has defended cooperation with Ruto as a strategy to advance Raila's agenda, while critics from the Linda Mwananchi movement argue that the arrangement weakens ODM's independence and its ability to challenge the government. The absence of some senior figures does not settle this debate but offers another indication of the party's struggle to present a unified political message.

Among the most notable developments was the presence of Senator Edwin Sifuna and other Linda Mwananchi leaders, who have criticized ODM's cooperation with the government. Sifuna's attendance in Bondo, a region closely associated with Raila's career, underscores a broader contest over whether Raila's influence can be inherited by a new generation of leaders and, if so, what that legacy should entail.

For Sifuna and his supporters, Raila's legacy centers on constitutionalism, civil liberties, accountability, and the willingness to challenge authority. ODM figures defending the broad-based government view the same legacy as a willingness to negotiate, form alliances, and use political cooperation for reform. Both perspectives invoke the same leader to support different political strategies, adding complexity to the evolving narrative surrounding ODM and the Ruto administration.