Report: Apple gains ground on rivals, but iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone Duo face challenges

In a recent investor note, GF Securities' Jeff Pu and Henry Huang predict that Apple will be the sole major smartphone manufacturer to increase shipments in 2026, despite the global market set to shrink by over 14%. Several IDC and Counterpoint Research reports have highlighted the impact of rising memory costs on smartphone sales, with Apple emerging as better equipped to handle the downturn compared to its competitors.

The new report projects that Apple will maintain its market share dominance in 2026, closing the year with a 4% year-over-year gain to 257 million units. This would keep Apple ahead of Samsung, which is projected to ship 241 million smartphones, essentially unchanged from 2025. Apple's global market share is also expected to rise to 24% in 2026, up from 20% in 2025 and 19% in 2024.

The total shipment market is forecasted to drop by 14.2% to 1.08 billion smartphones in 2026, with 2026-2027 projected as one of the most challenging periods for the industry due to higher memory prices. Apple's iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max have received lukewarm reception, partly attributed to competition from the iPhone Duo and criticism of their weight.

Production constraints affecting both the iPhone Duo and the iPhone 18 Pro lineup have led to a reduction in EMS build plans for the iPhone Duo from 7 million to 6 million units in 2026 and a decrease in the iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max build plan to 72 million units due to adjustable-aperture camera constraints. Apple's stock received a "Hold" rating with a price target of $369, while Apple shares closed at $343.46, up 0.43%, making it the only major tech stock to finish in the green amid the ongoing sector-wide sell-off.