Qué hacer en Ferrovial tras su bache en el Ibex

Ferrovial is poised to lead the declines of the Ibex index in 2026, according to recent analysis. The company recently won a new concession in the United States, causing additional drops of 4% in its shares. Analysts are questioning the latest projects, but after a recent correction of nearly 30%, they see an attractive opportunity to position themselves for the long term.

Earlier this week, JPMorgan analysts warned of the risk of further negative reactions in the stock market if Ferrovial also won the I-285 East project in Georgia, especially if it offered higher prices than its competitors. The prediction was confirmed when Ferrovial won the project with a bid higher than its rivals, causing a sharp 4.30% drop in its shares.

The company's new correction practically equates Ferrovial to the worst performer in the Ibex index for 2026, Fluidra. Both companies have fallen by more than 20% so far this year.

The sharp decline in Ferrovial's stock price this year has led investors to no longer automatically celebrate large concessions. They now want to verify the expected profitability before investing, as highlighted by Manuel Pinto, the investment manager at XTB. The I-285 project fits perfectly with Ferrovial's U.S. strategy, but it comes only two months after the contentious I-24 project in Tennessee, which forced the market to sharply punish an offer considered too aggressive.

Investors are now focusing on financing and questioning the returns of projects. Bank of America analysts detail that the total investment for the 100% project in Georgia is $33 billion, with $8.9 billion for construction costs and $24.1 billion for concession fees and payments to the state of Georgia. The total investment is similar to the $34 billion set for the I-24 project in Tennessee, which Ferrovial also won just two months ago.

The significant increase in Ferrovial's financing needs comes at a time when debt is becoming a major concern in the markets, leading to higher financing costs.

In response to the market tension, Ferrovial launched a message of reassurance in a presentation to investors this month. The company's CFO, Ernesto López, ruled out the possibility of divestitures to support the new project, changes to the shareholder compensation policy, or alterations to the group's agenda of new opportunities in the U.S.